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BACKSTAB NERFED:
Latest entry is 53.6 months old
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Butterfinger
|  posted 2005-06-05 12:05:07 (CST)
K here I am playing on test server, my base crit rate is 22.53%, imp backstab +30% = 52.53% crit rate.
Over 1012 backstabs, only 397 have been crits. Thats LESS THAN 40% CRIT RATE.
WTF blizzard
statisticaly the probability of me getting a 40% mean success rate on 1000 trials when the true success rate is 52% is less than .0001 So don't give me any of this "bad luck" bull$!@% something else is causing my crit rate to go down.[ post edited by Butterfinger ]
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motive
[Stats] [View]
| posted 2005-06-03 17:38:30 (CST), discovered 2005-06-05 12:05:07 (CST), 53.6 months old
Q u o t e:
Wait, motive can you verify some theoretical numbers for me? (assuming ideal distributions)
1) 1000 swings with a 50% chance to hit and a 50% chance to crit (against an equal level unarmored/no defense enemy) would result in
a) 500 crits, 500 misses (chance of regular hit = to hit - crit)
or
b) 500 crits, 250 hits, 250 misses (chance of regular hit calculated independently after crit roll)
or
c) 250 crits, 250 hits, 500 misses (chance of crit calculated independently after to-hit roll)
Sounds like you use option A as your calc, which is cool although not particularly intuitive.
Option a) is correct. But keep in mind that 50% hit AND 50% crit is not a possibility since in your example the % chance to miss stays the same. The way this works is that when your chance to crit increases, your chance to hit is consumed by that increase. So if I initially have a 25% chance to miss and a 50% chance to crit, then I have a 25% chance to hit. If I increase my crit chance to 55%, then my chance to hit (not crit) becomes 20%.
Q u o t e:
As for attack skill vs defense skill, am I correct to assume that the formula is crit adjustment = (ATTACK SKILL - DEFENSE SKILL) * 0.04?
So if rogue with 325 dagger skill and 50% crit attacks an enemy with 300 defense, the rogue's effective crit is 51%, and attacking a warrior with 425 defense the effective crit is 46%?
Yes, this is correct, applying the formula to a rogue with 325 dagger skill vs. a target with 300 defense increases the rogue’s crit chance to 51%.
(325 – 300)*0.04 = +1%
Your second assumption is also correct, applying the formula to attacking a warrior that has 425 defense yields a -5% to crit rate, dropping this rogue’s crit chance vs. the warrior to 46%.
(325 – 425)*0.04 = -4%
Q u o t e:
As for the original poster, Blizz you might want to reverify the (ATTACK SKILL - DEFENSE SKILL)*0.04 formula, as if that suddenly become (0 - DEFENSE SKILL) * 0.04 while tweaking defense, it would explain the ~12% drop in crit percentage.
I can't make any assumptions about the original poster's data because the weapon skill and target defense ratings were not posted. As many people have stated above also though, probability distribution is not always perfect and there is still a chance that once can be "unlucky". It's not impossible to toss tails 50 times in a row, it's not impossible to only crit 40% of the time when the chance to do so is 50%. | |
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